worldweatherChristmas weather in the United Kingdom 2026
It is still too early for an exact forecast. Instead, we show how the weather looked during Christmas in the United Kingdom, 24-26 December in 2016-2025 and which seasons currently resemble 2026 most closely.
🎄 What was the weather like over the last 10 years?
For Christmas in the United Kingdom, 24-26 December, the typical range between night and day was wide: from about 3.9°C to 7.6°C. In 8 of the 10 years, rain affected at least half of the cities. Regional differences matter, so each city is also listed below.
Temperature in 2016-2025
The vertical line shows the average night-to-day temperature range across 10 cities; the dot marks the 24-hour mean.
🔎 What do seasons similar to late summer 2026 suggest?
The comparison uses average temperature and rainfall from 1 August to mid-September. The closest matches are 2023, 2022, 2025. In those years, Christmas in the United Kingdom, 24-26 December was on average close to the 10-year average. Late-summer weather cannot determine conditions several weeks later, but these years show realistic ways the season may develop.
| Similar year | Late summer | Daytime | Night | Rain | Frost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16.3°C | 9.5°C | 5.9°C | 7.6 mm | no |
| 2022 | 16.9°C | 7.9°C | 4.1°C | 8.1 mm | no |
| 2025 | 15.9°C | 5.1°C | 1.1°C | 0.1 mm | yes, 5/10 cities |
Weather year by year
| Year | Mean | Daytime | Night | Rain | Cities with rain | Cities with frost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9°C | 5.1°C | 1.1°C | 0.1 mm | 0/10 | 5/10 |
| 2024 | 8.3°C | 9.8°C | 7.1°C | 3.3 mm | 9/10 | 0/10 |
| 2023 | 7.8°C | 9.5°C | 5.9°C | 7.6 mm | 10/10 | 0/10 |
| 2022 | 6.1°C | 7.9°C | 4.1°C | 8.1 mm | 10/10 | 0/10 |
| 2021 | 4.8°C | 6.3°C | 3.3°C | 15.3 mm | 10/10 | 1/10 |
| 2020 | 3.5°C | 5.6°C | 1°C | 9.6 mm | 10/10 | 8/10 |
| 2019 | 5.2°C | 7°C | 3.6°C | 7.5 mm | 10/10 | 0/10 |
| 2018 | 5.7°C | 7.5°C | 4°C | 1.2 mm | 4/10 | 2/10 |
| 2017 | 6.4°C | 8°C | 4.4°C | 22.3 mm | 10/10 | 3/10 |
| 2016 | 7°C | 8.9°C | 4.6°C | 6.5 mm | 10/10 | 0/10 |
Differences between UK cities
| City | Average daytime | Average night | Rain / 3 days | Years with frost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 8.6°C | 4.9°C | 10.7 mm | 2/10 |
| Bristol | 8.6°C | 4.4°C | 9 mm | 2/10 |
| London | 8.5°C | 3.9°C | 5.9 mm | 2/10 |
| Belfast | 8.4°C | 5.7°C | 10.7 mm | 0/10 |
| Liverpool | 7.8°C | 4.8°C | 6.8 mm | 0/10 |
| Birmingham | 7.7°C | 3.4°C | 7.3 mm | 2/10 |
| Manchester | 7.1°C | 3.6°C | 6.8 mm | 1/10 |
| Newcastle | 6.7°C | 3.2°C | 4.7 mm | 3/10 |
| Edinburgh | 6.4°C | 3°C | 7 mm | 2/10 |
| Glasgow | 5.7°C | 2.4°C | 12.5 mm | 5/10 |
⏱️ When will the forecast become more reliable?
We show the range of outcomes from similar seasons.
It becomes easier to judge whether December is heading towards cold or a thaw.
The first Christmas dates enter the forecast range.
The most useful temperature, precipitation and wind information.
🧳 How should you plan your trip?
- Christmas precipitation is not automatically snow; sufficiently low temperature is also required.
- When temperatures cross 0°C, road ice can be a bigger problem than precipitation itself.
- Check the route forecast the day before travel because conditions can vary significantly across the United Kingdom.
See also the 14-day weather forecast for the United Kingdom, the climate in the United Kingdom in December and Halloween weather in the United Kingdom 2026.
For comparison, see the same weather analysis for Poland.
Frequently asked questions
Sources and methodology
The history covers 2016-2025 and 10 cities: Cardiff, Bristol, London, Belfast, Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, Edinburgh, Glasgow. Daily data comes from the NASA POWER Daily API (v2.9.7, MERRA-2 meteorological data; accessed 1 September 2026). These are gridded data for climate comparisons, not observations from city weather stations.
The early 2026 signal combines historical data available through 29 August 2026 with the saved site forecast through 14 September 2026. Analog years are selected from temperature and rainfall between 1 August and mid-September. Rain does not automatically mean snow or snow cover.