Halloween weather 2026weather analysis for the United States

Halloween weather in the United States 2026

It is still too early for an exact forecast. Instead, we show how the weather looked during Halloween and the 31 October-2 November period in the United States in 2016-2025 and which seasons currently resemble 2026 most closely.

📊 10 years of history🇺🇸 10 US cities🗓️ 3-day window updates as the date approaches

What do we know today? Late summer 2026 across the analysed cities is warmer than the recent 10-year average. The average based on observations through 29 August 2026 and the available forecast through 14 September 2026 is 26°C, +1.4°C compared with the same period in 2016-2025. This only indicates the broad direction of autumn. Temperatures, rain and wind for Halloween will become visible in the second half of October.

🎃 What was the weather like over the last 10 years?

average daytime18.9°Caverage across 10 cities

average night-time9.6°Caverage across 10 cities

rain over the period6.7 mmaverage per city

years with frost10/10in at least one city

For Halloween and the 31 October-2 November period in the United States, the typical range between night and day was wide: from about 9.6°C to 18.9°C. In 6 of the 10 years, rain affected at least half of the cities. Regional differences matter, so each city is also listed below.

Temperature in 2016-2025

The vertical line shows the average night-to-day temperature range across 10 cities; the dot marks the 24-hour mean.

🔎 What do seasons similar to late summer 2026 suggest?

The comparison uses average temperature and rainfall from 1 August to mid-September. The closest matches are 2023, 2022, 2021. In those years, Halloween and the 31 October-2 November period in the United States was on average close to the 10-year average. Late-summer weather cannot determine conditions several weeks later, but these years show realistic ways the season may develop.

Similar year	Late summer	Daytime	Night	Rain	Frost
2023	25.2°C	16.7°C	6.9°C	4.7 mm	yes, 3/10 cities
2022	25.2°C	20.6°C	11.5°C	5.8 mm	yes, 1/10 cities
2021	24.7°C	17.9°C	9.9°C	4.1 mm	yes, 1/10 cities

What could Halloween 2026 bring? In the three most similar years, the turn of October and November averaged 18.4°C by day and 9.4°C at night. If this autumn follows a similar path, a Halloween period close to the 10-year average is more likely. A detailed forecast for 31 October will be available in the second half of October.

Weather year by year

Year	Mean	Daytime	Night	Rain	Cities with rain	Cities with frost
2025	13.7°C	19.2°C	9.4°C	4.7 mm	5/10	1/10
2024	15.7°C	21°C	11.2°C	5.9 mm	5/10	1/10
2023	11.3°C	16.7°C	6.9°C	4.7 mm	4/10	3/10
2022	15.5°C	20.6°C	11.5°C	5.8 mm	9/10	1/10
2021	13.5°C	17.9°C	9.9°C	4.1 mm	6/10	1/10
2020	12.9°C	18.7°C	8.4°C	5.8 mm	4/10	2/10
2019	11.5°C	17.5°C	6.4°C	8.6 mm	6/10	4/10
2018	14.7°C	19.2°C	10.5°C	14.9 mm	8/10	2/10
2017	13.9°C	18.4°C	10.4°C	6.2 mm	4/10	1/10
2016	15.5°C	20.2°C	11.8°C	6.4 mm	4/10	1/10

Differences between US cities

City	Average daytime	Average night	Rain / 3 days	Years with frost
Phoenix	28.3°C	13.3°C	0.4 mm	0/10
Miami	27.2°C	25°C	4.2 mm	0/10
Houston	24.5°C	11.9°C	14.3 mm	1/10
Los Angeles	24.3°C	13.3°C	0.5 mm	0/10
Washington	17.3°C	7°C	7.5 mm	1/10
New York	15.4°C	10.1°C	6 mm	0/10
Denver	14.5°C	-0.6°C	0.7 mm	9/10
Boston	14.2°C	4.6°C	7.1 mm	5/10
Seattle	12.6°C	5.9°C	19.9 mm	0/10
Chicago	11.2°C	5.9°C	6.5 mm	1/10

⏱️ When will the forecast become more reliable?

nowHistory and analogue years

We compare late summer 2026 with similar years.

early OctoberMonthly outlook

A useful first indication of temperature and rainfall should emerge.

17-20 October14-day forecast

Temperatures, rain and wind for individual cities begin to enter range.

27-31 OctoberDetailed forecast

The best time to decide on outdoor plans and clothing.

🧳 How should you plan your trip?

Plan costumes with an extra warm or waterproof layer for outdoor events.
Check wind and rain as well as temperature when planning evening activities.
For longer journeys, check the route forecast again 2-3 days before departure.

See also the 14-day weather forecast for the United States, the climate in the United States in November and Christmas weather in the United States 2026.

For comparison, see the same weather analysis for Poland.

Frequently asked questions

What will the weather be like on Halloween 2026 in the United States?

In early September it is too soon for a reliable forecast for 31 October. Historical ranges and similar seasons are useful now; daily forecasts become meaningful in the second half of October.

Will Halloween 2026 be warm in the United States?

Across the last 10 years, the average daytime maximum for the analysed period and 10 cities was about 18.9°C. It is a useful reference, not a forecast for 2026.

When should I check the Halloween forecast?

The first useful detail should appear around 17-20 October. Check again 2-3 days before outdoor plans.

Sources and methodology

The history covers 2016-2025 and 10 cities: Phoenix, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, Washington, New York, Denver, Boston, Seattle, Chicago. Daily data comes from the NASA POWER Daily API (v2.9.7, MERRA-2 meteorological data; accessed 1 September 2026). These are gridded data for climate comparisons, not observations from city weather stations.

The early 2026 signal combines historical data available through 29 August 2026 with the saved site forecast through 14 September 2026. Analog years are selected from temperature and rainfall between 1 August and mid-September. Rain does not automatically mean snow or snow cover.